There are two growing concerns about artificial intelligence, or AI. One is that the application of AI will lead to mass unemployment, and the other concern is that the technology will lead to a serious deterioration in wealth distribution. In my view, both concerns are unnecessary.
The great majority of service jobs are nowhere near replaceable by technology. AlphaGo can beat the best human chess player, but a human hand is needed to place the “stones” on the Go board.
It will take at least three decades – or a whole generation – before robots can take over jobs such as house cleaning or airplane cabin service.
By “robots,” we mean all forms of automation technologies, including those that conductphysical tasks, intellectual tasks, or customer service tasks (which mix elements of both physical and intellectual activities, but which constitute a distinct category in the age of the customer). Indeed, some impressive new technologies are becoming incredibly useful in a variety of organizational settings.
Robots Won't Steal All The Jobs -- But They'll Transform The Way We Work.
Instead, Forrester lays out a specific, nuanced viewpoint rooted in a huge research initiative:We forecast that 16% of jobs will disspear due to automation technologies between now and 2025, but that jobs equivalent to 9% of today’s jobs will be created. Physical robots require repair and maintenance professionals — one of several job categories that will grow up around a more automated world. That’s a net loss of 7%: far fewer than most forecasts, though still a significant job loss number.
Finally, we look at job transformation: At what point in the future will any given job category be changed by the presence of automation technologies? Our analysis suggests that, by 2019, 25% of all job tasks will be offloaded to software robots, physical robots, or customer self-service automation. For most workers, robotic colleagues will change the way we approach our daily jobs, requiring new methods of job training, management, financial reporting systems, and the like.
While we agree about the seismic changes afoot, we don’t believe this is the right way to think about it. Approaching the challenge this way assumes society has to be passive about how tomorrow’s technologies are designed and implemented. The truth is there is no absolute law that determines the shape and consequences of innovation. We can all influence where it takes us.
Thus, the question society should be asking is: “How can we direct the development of future technologies so that robots complement rather than replace us?”
The Japanese have an apt phrase for this: “giving wisdom to the machines.” And the wisdom comes from workers and an integrated approach to technology design, as our research shows.
